The Great Indian Lockdown (November edition) — All you need to know

For India, the COVID-19 (C19) story is not yet over. Although the number of cases reportedly peaked in September, avoiding a second wave (at the country level) is of utmost importance. A series of lockdowns and staggered reopening phases have had a deep impact on the economy. Even as some of the high-frequency indicators return to pre-C19 levels, both the Indian government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continue to fight the pandemic-induced economic challenges. Consensus is that growth contraction in FY2020 is inevitable — a deep contraction in 1Q anda relatively moderate fall in 2Q, with chances of a turnaround in 3Q.

In this chart book, we assess a mix of macro and alternative data to help understand the impact of the pandemic on the economy through easy-to-read illustrations that cover the various phases of lockdown and reopening. We also offer a unique representation of high-frequency proxy indicators to gauge economic uncertainty and recovery.

Acuity Knowledge Partners’ Macro team will track developments in the Indian economy (covering the impact and recovery) in a series of fortnightly publications.

Key Takeaways:

  • The lockdowns were imposed mainly to reduce mobility in an effort to limit the spread of the virus. Restrictions have been relaxed now, and mobility is increasing
  • With over 1.3bn under lockdown, online activity thrived, but other businesses are now picking up pace
  • Activity is edging back-markets and trade are recovering, there is less uncertainty and the labour markets are stabilising. However, sustaining momentum amid subdued sentiment remains a concern
  • Both the government and the RBI continue to take measures to revive the economy amid increasing geopolitical tensions

Originally published at https://www.acuitykp.com.

We write about financial industry trends, the impact of regulatory changes and opinions on industry inflection points. https://www.acuitykp.com/